> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.evanscutchmorepress.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Letlow leads Davis by four points as Louisiana's Senate race tightens - URL: https://www.evanscutchmorepress.com/letlow-leads-davis-by-four-points-as-louisianas-senate-race-tightens/ - Published: 2026-08-23T16:52:18.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-23T16:52:18.000Z - Description: Louisiana's first Senate poll is out, and the margin may not be the story. Republican Julia Letlow leads Democrat Jamie Davis 41 to 37 percent, but more than one in five voters remain undecided, and two political scientists say that block could make the race closer than the frontrunner expected. - Author: Kim M. Braud - Tags: Elections, All Stories ELECTIONS *The contest to fill Bill Cassidy's U.S. Senate seat has drawn its first public poll, and the number that matters most may not be the margin. It is the share of voters who have not yet decided.* *Kim M. Braud | August 22, 2026* Republican Julia Letlow, who has represented Louisiana's 5th Congressional District since 2021, leads Democrat Jamie Davis, a row-crop farmer and Tensas Parish police juror, by four points in a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling and released by the Davis campaign. The breakdown: 41 percent for Letlow, 37 percent for Davis, and 22 percent undecided. The poll surveyed 518 registered Louisiana voters on July 21 and 22, in a sample where Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 14 percentage points. ## What the numbers show Two political scientists who reviewed the poll landed in a similar place: the result gives Democrats a reason to pay attention, but the underlying math still favors Letlow. LSU political science professor Robert Hogan cautioned that this is a single poll with no other current data to compare it against. He noted that Letlow is "winning somewhat like an incumbent," having just come through a bruising statewide primary as a sitting member of Congress. Hogan expects that as Election Day approaches, most of the undecided voters will drift back toward her. Southern University political science professor Albert Samuels read the undecided figure as the more revealing signal. With better than one in five voters uncommitted and only four points separating the candidates, he said, the race may prove closer than the Letlow campaign anticipated. Samuels tied that possibility to the national climate, pointing to President Donald Trump's approval rating in the 30s and to competitive races in states that would not normally be in play. ## The name-recognition gap One finding underlines how much of this race is still unformed. More than half of those surveyed had neither a favorable nor an unfavorable opinion of Davis, compared with about a quarter who felt that way about Letlow. That gap reflects the difference between a three-term congresswoman and a first-time statewide candidate running a grassroots operation. The resource picture tracks the same divide. Letlow has raised more than $6 million this year and carries Trump's endorsement. Davis has raised just under $2 million. ## How they got here Both candidates emerged from June 27 runoffs. Letlow nearly won the Republican primary outright in May with 45 percent of the vote, then defeated state Treasurer John Fleming 57 to 43 percent in the runoff. Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges in 2021, finished third in the primary and did not advance. On the Democratic side, Davis won his party's runoff against Gary Crockett. Davis has centered his campaign on jobs, the economy, and rural Louisiana, citing failing schools, limited broadband, and struggling hospitals in Tensas Parish. Letlow has pledged to work in lockstep with Trump to advance his agenda. ## One caveat on timing The poll carries an important limit. It was in the field on July 21 and 22, before Gulf States Newsroom reporter Drew Hawkins published his August reporting on Letlow's non-disclosure agreement with Laidley LLC and her subsequent stock trades. According to that reporting, Letlow began buying Meta and Nvidia stock within months of signing the NDA and did not disclose the trades for more than a year. Samuels called it a serious political problem she will have to answer for. Whatever effect the story has on voters, this poll does not capture it. ## Where the race stands The fundamentals still favor Letlow: a Republican electorate, an incumbent's profile, a wide fundraising lead, and a presidential endorsement. What keeps the contest live is the block of undecided voters, the disclosure questions now trailing the frontrunner, and a national environment that has made unexpected races competitive elsewhere. The general election is set for November 3, with early voting beginning in October. ## How to follow this Evans Cutchmore is tracking the Letlow-Davis race through Election Day. If you have documents, records, or firsthand information relevant to either campaign, you can reach the newsroom through the contact page. We will update this coverage as new polling and disclosures become available. --- *Kim M. Braud is the Founder & Editor of Evans Cutchmore Press, an independent newsroom covering Louisiana and the Gulf South. Her reporting focuses on government accountability, infrastructure, business, culture, and the public policies that shape communities.* *© 2026 Evans Cutchmore Press. All rights reserved.* --- [SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSROOM](https://www.evanscutchmorepress.com/subscribe/)