NEWS ANALYSIS

Enrollment has fallen 7.4% since 2019, and most of that drop came by 2021. Births have fallen more than 25%. An Evans Cutchmore analysis of the presentation the district gave at the L.B. Landry meeting.

By Kim M. Braud | September 30, 2026

When NOLA Public Schools met with the Landry community on Sept. 28, it brought a 31-slide presentation titled "Charter Renewals and Stronger, Sustainable, and Successful Schools." The deck lays out the data behind the district's plan to reduce the number of schools in New Orleans.

Read closely, the numbers show two different trends. District enrollment dropped sharply, then largely leveled off. The number of children being born in the city has kept falling. The district's case for fewer schools rests mostly on the second trend: children who have not yet reached school age.

Enrollment: most of the drop came early

The district's slide tracks total enrollment, pre-K through 12th grade, as of each Oct. 1 count.

From the 2019 peak to 2025, enrollment fell by 3,446 students, or 7.4%.

By Evans Cutchmore's calculation, 1,764 of those students, about 51% of the total loss, left in a single year, between 2019 and 2020. That is the year the pandemic began. By 2021, the decline had reached 2,838 students, about 82% of the total. The slide itself notes that more than 80% of the loss happened by 2021 and describes enrollment as leveling off since.

From 2021 to 2025, enrollment fell by 608 students, about 1.4% over four years. It rose by 360 students in 2024.

At the Landry meeting, Fulmore said enrollment is down 985 students this year by her latest check. That figure is not in the deck, and the official count is taken Oct. 1.

Births: the steeper decline

The deck's birth data, drawn from federal records of births to mothers living in Orleans Parish, shows a sharper and more recent drop.

Births peaked at 5,066 in 2014 and 5,068 in 2015. By 2024 they had fallen to 3,769.

District enrollment is down 7.4% from its peak. Births are down 25.6%.

The district links each birth year to a future kindergarten class. The 2014 birth cohort, now in seventh grade, entered kindergarten when enrollment peaked. Here is how the classes still to come compare, by Evans Cutchmore's calculation:

The district's slide uses the last figure: the class expected to start kindergarten in fall 2029 is 1,297 children smaller than the class that started at peak enrollment.

Two limits apply. Births count all babies born to Orleans Parish mothers. Not all of those children will enroll in public schools, and some families move in or out. The deck does not say what share of each birth cohort typically enrolls in the district. And although the source note on the slide covers 2007 through 2023, the chart also includes a 2024 figure.

What an empty seat costs

Two slides, credited to the nonprofit New Schools for New Orleans, show a hypothetical school losing students over time. This is not Landry or any real school.

By our calculation, the example assumes each student brings in about $14,815. When the school loses 100 students, revenue falls by about $1.48 million while expenses fall by only $225,000, or about $2,250 per student lost. The slides list what the school might cut to close the gap: a full-time social worker, updated technology, after-school tutoring days, a ninth-grade reading interventionist, a $3,000 teacher raise, and new science materials.

A separate district slide says each planned student who does not show up can cost a school nearly $12,000.

For scale, Algiers Charter has said Landry enrolled about 500 students last year, fewer than the smallest school in the example. The deck includes no enrollment or budget figures for Landry itself.

Fewer schools, bigger schools

A third New Schools for New Orleans slide tracks schools closed or consolidated from the 2021-22 school year to 2025-26.

In total, 14 schools closed or consolidated, and one new K-8 school opened. The slide says 12 of the closed schools were rated F, and 12 buildings in the two lowest facility tiers were taken out of use.

Over that period, the number of schools fell about three to four times faster than the number of students. The slide attributes the larger schools to consolidation.

These totals come from a different count than the district's enrollment chart. The consolidation slide includes nearly all public schools in Orleans Parish, including selective-admission and alternative schools, so its student totals are higher. The two sets of numbers should not be compared directly.

How renewal is decided

Nine schools have charter contracts expiring June 30, 2027:

• Audubon Charter School (Uptown)
• Edward Hynes Charter School (Lakeview)
• Lord Beaconsfield Landry-Oliver Perry Walker High School
• Martin Behrman Charter Academy of Creative Arts & Sciences
• Phillis Wheatley Community School
• Pierre A. Capdau S.T.E.A.M.
• Rooted School
• The NET: Gentilly
• Warren Easton Senior High School

Landry and Behrman are both run by Algiers Charter.

Renewal is based mainly on a school's renewal score, drawn from state school performance scores. For high schools, the district's bands are:

A school can also be recommended for nonrenewal regardless of test scores if it is rated "not in good standing" on the district's organizational measures. Because Louisiana changed its accountability system this year, every school's renewal score will be calculated as if it were a first renewal.

Families get written notice at least four business days before a nonrenewal recommendation. If the school board does not reject a recommendation within five days, the district carries it out.

What the deck does not show

The presentation makes the case that the district has more seats than students. It does not include seat capacity figures for the district, a neighborhood, or any school.

The overcapacity figure Fulmore cited aloud, roughly 3,700 K-8 seats, is not in the deck. Neither is her projection of three to five more K-8 schools and one to two high schools downsizing by 2029-30.

Those numbers may matter more soon. Under Act 687, Fulmore must report to the school board by Nov. 15 on whether the district is overcapacity. If it is, the board can end charter contracts before they expire, and it can reject her recommendations only with a two-thirds vote, Verite News has reported.

How to follow this

• Landry this year: The school stays open through 2026-27, and students remain enrolled, according to the district.
• Community meeting: Thursday, Oct. 1, 5:30 to 7 p.m., at MLK Elementary, 1617 Fats Domino Ave.
• Public hearing: Thursday, Nov. 5, at 5:30 p.m., for schools in the enhanced data review. Public comment is allowed.
• Overcapacity report: Due to the school board by Nov. 15.
• Recommendations and vote: Wednesday, Dec. 9, at 5:30 p.m. Public comment is allowed before the board votes.
• Comments to the district: charterschools@nolapublicschools.com, or 504-304-3520, asking for Cathy Chase, director of parent and family engagement.
• District data: Enrollment figures are on the NOLA Public Schools data dashboard.
• The presentation is below

Kim M. Braud is the Founder & Editor of Evans Cutchmore Press, an independent newsroom covering Louisiana and the Gulf South. Her reporting focuses on government accountability, infrastructure, business, culture, and the public policies that shape communities.

© 2026 Evans Cutchmore Press. All rights reserved.